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Scottish Premiership 2025/26 title race: Data backs Hearts to keep upsetting the odds

The Scottish Premiership has developed a reputation for being a two-horse race, with Celtic and Rangers dominating the landscape for several decades.

Aberdeen’s title success in 1984/85 was the last time one of the big two clubs in Scotland failed to finish top of the standings.

However, Hearts have muscled their way into the title race this season after undergoing a significant shake-up behind the scenes last summer.

Brighton & Hove Albion owner Tony Bloom invested £10 million into the club and handed them exclusive access to Jamestown Analytics.

The high-impact data consultancy for professional football has proved to be a game-changer for Hearts, allowing them to operate more effectively in the transfer market.

The results are clear to see. Hearts are three points clear of Rangers with 13 games remaining. Celtic are a further three points adrift with a game in hand.

Research by BestBettingBonuses.co.uk (backed by data from Opta) suggests that Hearts aren’t just making up the numbers – they could easily still be in the lead going into the final five games of the season.

Here’s a look at the fixtures for each of the top three sides leading up to the league split (Matchday 33):

Hearts fancied to be pre-split table-toppers

The remaining pre-split fixtures give Hearts every chance of heading into the final five matches with a healthy advantage. Their next eight fixtures are as follows:

  • Hibernian (H) - February 10
  • Rangers (A) - February 15
  • Falkirk (H) - February 21
  • Aberdeen (H) – February 28
  • Kilmarnock (A) – March 14
  • Dundee (H) – March 21
  • Livingston (A) – April 4
  • Motherwell (H) – April 11

Opta recently gave Hearts a 60.2 percent chance of topping the table when the league splits.

They had a four-point lead over Rangers at that point, which has since been reduced to three points following Hearts’ shock defeat at St Mirren in midweek.

Despite that disappointment, the upcoming fixtures cement the belief Hearts’ shrewd investments will pay dividends this season.

Five of their next eight games are scheduled to be played at Tynecastle. Of their three away games, two are against the bottom two teams.

If all of those games go to form, and Hearts take something from their visit to Rangers on February 15, they should extend their lead at the top of the table.

Predicted position at league split

Rangers are on a Rohl

  • Motherwell (A) - February 11
  • Hearts (H) - February 15
  • Livingston (A) - February 22
  • Celtic (H) - March 1
  • St Mirren (A) – March 14
  • Aberdeen (H) – March 21
  • Dundee United (H) – April 4
  • Falkirk (A) – April 11

An eight-game unbeaten run has pushed Rangers up to second in the standings, but staying there may be easier said than done.

Danny Rohl’s side will fancy their chances of winning at Livingston, but visits to Motherwell, St Mirren and Falkirk all have the potential to be tricky.

A home victory over Hearts would blow the title race wide open, but they have failed to beat them in two previous meetings this season.

Each of their other three fixtures at Ibrox have the potential to be banana skins, particularly the clash with Celtic on March 1.

Given what is at stake in that clash, it would be no surprise if the game finished all-square, which would boost Hearts’ title hopes.

Celtic cannot rely on past glories

  • Livingston (H) - February 11
  • Kilmarnock (A) - February 15
  • Hibernian (H) - February 21
  • Rangers (A) – March 1
  • Motherwell (H) – March 14
  • Dundee United (A) – March 21
  • Dundee (A) – April 4
  • St Mirren (H) – April 11
  • Aberdeen (A) - TBA

Celtic are the betting favourites to win the title with all bookmakers – a status that has undoubtedly been afforded to them based on their previous achievements.

However, they have yet to beat Hearts or Rangers this season and have shown little to suggest they are capable of snapping that streak.

Interim manager Martin O’Neill is a shrewd operator, but the damage done under previous bosses Brendan Rodgers and Wilfried Nancy will be tough to overcome.

Celtic’s pre-split fixture list is not overly favourable, while the Europa League knockout round play-off tie against Stuttgart in February adds a further layer of difficulty to their task.

The Hoops strengthened their squad during the winter transfer window with several loanees, but that is unlikely to be enough for them to retain the title.