How do we accept the fact that technology and technologisation are unmistakable realities of modern-day sports? Some of us know of analytics, player performance, pattern recognition, and even AI usage when strategising. However, the truth is that many of us seem to have a hard time accepting this reality.
One of the first entries into this type of thinking was realising that VAR (or video assistant referee) is to become integral to modern-day football. Since its introduction following Blatter’s downfall and Infantino’s rise in the mid-2010s, it has garnered an increasing amount of scrutiny. Some herald it as an equaliser against corruption or honest mistakes, while others think of it as an abomination that goes against the spirit of the game.
As you will see, we will spend some time analysing the philosophical implications of VAR in the world of association football. However, the main purpose of this article is to think, debate, and draw some conclusions regarding its effects on sports betting. The truth is that sports betting on football is an immense worldwide market, as proven by every statistic. Since football is the world’s most popular game, it is only natural that it rakes up incredible numbers across any conceivable board.
Since there is such an immense base of bettors, VAR decisions take an immense toll when decisions that inform live bets can change from moment to moment. There are millions of proposition bets that change live as each decision or happenstance goes on. What is the role of VR when it comes to changing them?
What do we think of VAR?
As promised above, we believe that we should set the table with a bit of an opinion piece. The purpose is not only self-expression, which we find valuable in such context, but also contextualising all the statements that will be relevant in the rest of this article. VAR has a certain complexity that goes beyond Hawkeye’s implementation of technology.
In theory, VAR is an excellent addition to a game that suffers from bouts of arbitrariness. There have been too many situations when the outcome of corruption, poor decision-making, bias, or strife have impacted the chances of a game. However, some of these lack of decision-making have also created butterfly effects. It was a no-call that sprang the ‘hand of God’ goal, even if football fans like to admit it or not.
Nobody in the Irish folk would ever want to remember the blatant mistake of allowing Thierry Henry to palm the football as if he were playing basketball and knock them out of the possibility of playing in a World Cup where they did nothing positive.
The other perspective is all about thinking that the authority of the referee is already quite low when you see how players strut and complain. In some cases, they are right about some of their complaints and gripes, but the referee should be able to command the field. This doesn't mean that authority should trounce honesty and correctness.
It is a bad look when VAR identifies mistakes from referees, especially if the mistakes in question are not just by hair. It further raises questions about the legitimacy of sports products and competition. VAR signifies an almost demiurge-like entity that calls upon the main referee and decides with further proof. Would the referee be able to renounce his ego and accept their mistake, even if it’s by a very small margin?
Reversible Decisions, Reversible Bets
The highest level of complaint regarding VAR and betting is that you may have issues with decisions you make in real time. Live betting is becoming increasingly popular, and the possibility of pivoting and placing a bet based on a new on-pitch reality is very appealing.
If a crunch-time penalty is in place, the first reflex is to place a bet that basically gives the game (or the tie) to the team that obtained the penalty, regardless of whether the penalty turns into a goal. One wants to exploit certain odds, which tend to be very dynamic among bookkeepers, especially when the funds brought by a free bonus no deposit are in the mix.
Once you place the bet, you have already invested your money into an outcome. You may lose it before the kicker misses the penalty, and that’s a gamble that you revel in because that’s what you like about this activity. However, if the VAR team calls the referee to the screen and the penalty gets rescinded, you may have a blind bet that in no way reflects your intentions or the reality of football.
This is why the possibility of betting live in the age of VR needs some form of way out.
Necessary Policy
We come to our next point: policy needs to be in place on the platform of any bookie, online or otherwise. There needs to be a certain method of mitigating the effect of a reality that goes against the good spirit of betting in real-time.
Policy, general or internal (that of the bookkeeper), is a way of ensuring that there is no grey area regarding bets affected by VAR, especially if they are proposition bets. One of the most important ways to ensure that is to basically create a certain term that states that bets that happen in a certain timeframe (belonging to the action that includes a VAR decision) are to become voided and money returned.
The biggest problem is implementation, but even in this situation, AI can help if either the AI model or human overseer can identify the exact moment when the bets/action start; it can identify the segment of wagers that shouldn’t ultimately matter. This is a bit of a pain, but it is the best way to take advantage of live betting while keeping things as fair as possible.
Practice Patience if a Decision is Unclear
Even if the bookie is unable to make sure that your bets don’t suffer from decision reversals, you should have your best interest at heart by praticing a bit of patience. Yes, it may be best to exploit odds in real-time, but is it reality worth it to do so if it means losing money on a bet because of haaste?
In our opinion, working your way around this situation would greatly benefit from the idea of waiting to see if there is any word/commentary on possible VR, if the referee hears anything from their hands-free system, or if there is a raised flag anywhere. Adopting such a strategy is one of the best ways to also play in a responsible way, which we fully support!